For much of the season, and increasingly after the last 2 weeks, there have been questions about Baker Mayfield and if the Browns should be considering moving on from him. All of this despite leading the Browns to their best record 2014, and on the brink of the playoffs. The pundits dismiss the weather (2 weeks in a row of weather no QB could succeed in) and the fact that the Browns went INTO the season with a new HC that has a history of relying heavily on the running game...and the fact that the Browns have 2 (not 1) legit running options in the backfield.
With all that said...here is an interesting comparison:
Baker: 149/243, 1646 yds, 15 TD, 7 INT, 0 Fum, 67 yds lost on 12 sacks
QB2: 158/247, 1762 yds, 14 TD, 5 INT. 3 Fum, 129 yds lost on 23 sacks
The net yardage is 1579 to 1632...a mere 53 yards...on 15 fewer pass plays...with 1 less turnover and 1 more TD. Oh, and both teams are 6-3...yet one is still seen as a pro-bowler and Baker seen as a QB you may want to move on from.
The above is Baker Mayfield vs Lamar Jackson....and Lamar has played in 1 poor weather game and lost it badly.
Anyone ready to move on may want to consider all of the above. Baker is being the guy he has been asked to be. The leash will be lessened when needed...but why do that until the running game is stopped (which also protects our D)?
Baker is fine. He will get even better. Time...and time with the same coaches, and the same system...is all he needs.
Can we Browns fans give it to him? I know I am willing.
GO BROWNS!!!
I believe pretty deeply in him. It would take a lot more than those numbers or my eyes to move me off him. He has everything I value in a QB.
It's not a sum zero discussion. If'n their's is good, ours must be bad. Not true unless you get to choose when to pluck away Mahomes or Herbert or something. The question is: Can Baker be the QB of a Browns championship team? Can he continue "ascending" in the offense, getting better and better?
I think the answers will be yes. But I've been wrong before. I just don't see a Mitch Trubisky. I think he's better than all three of the other QBs playing in this offense, and I like the first two (Jimmy G., Tannehill, Cousins).
I suppose it becomes a question of value, considering how much/little he'll be asked to do compared to a Mahomes. I don't think the two guys should be paid the same. But I think Baker can easily complete 70% for over 7.5, 30/10, and win a ton of games.
But he's 9 games into a new offense with no preseason and consecutive dreadful weather games. Let's keep watching him.
Interesting: Jake Burns has been saying that the Browns and Baker should make a convertible Jimmy G. type of deal, plenty of money but get-outtable if it isn't working after year 2.
Meaningful on two levels: First, it's the same offense that clearly doesn't require or accommodate a Mahomes "ball dominant" QB, a highlight reel of freelancing. Second... the Niners are 24-9 with Jimmy and like 6-23 without him since 2017.
We see the value of a great QB. We often underestimate the importance of a good or very good one. This is that kind of offense and Baker is that kind of QB. His upside is higher than Jimmy's, has a bigger arm, but he doesn't have the running element, isn't really multidimensional like Mahomes, Russ, even Josh, Justin, or Tua. But neither does Burrow (both are nimble).
He does seem just right for the Shanny Shanny, when he's locked in and throwing darts like the 20 in a row against the Bengals (when the weather isn't nuts).
I think the Browns will pick up his option after this season. Then, if he shows more growth after an actual camp, they could add a few more years that can easily become two.
Anyone who even semi-seriously wants to give up on Baker needs to look around the league for a minute at teams with real QB questions and decide what teams they'd rather be.
Wanna be like the Bears, who are currently screwed? Maybe the Pats, who are attempting to make Cam work? Or the Niners, who are not the same without Jimmy G? Would you prefer to be the Panthers, with Teddy at QB? Maybe we'd prefer to be the Jets or Giants, who else have top 10 QBs who are not looking great?
Even some good teams are trying to survive with second-run QBs: Saints with Jameis, Bucs hoping for a miracle from Brady.
Or perhaps we'd prefer to be the Falcons with Ryan? Or the Colts with Phil?
Give me a break with this shit already. It would be insane to stop this momentum and reboot at QB just because some people can't separate hype from reality.
The reality is that Baker is a winning NFL QB who is currently average to slightly above average. Those are the facts.
And you don't give up even on average QBs, especially not given Baker's circumstances.
And you absolutely have to believe it's probable that Baker's best football is ahead of him. Like, maybe when he goes to a training camp to hone an offense he played the season before?!
As someone said on Twitter, Browns fans are better at handling losing than enjoying winning. I see that as an objective fact.
I feel like Baker’s become more of a game manager than a gunslinger at the moment... partially because our run game is so otherworldly, and partially because teams have plans for him now. Right now, he’s a top half QB, but not a TOP QB.
If that’s the case, then I hope he’s prepared to be paid that way, rather than be on Mahomes money, because the intangibles are so heavily-weighted toward keeping him; his brashness gave us belief, his rapport with his teammates is obvious, and for ONCE, we have a settled QB position.
I want to keep him, but I ain't breaking the bank for him.
Sorry, but Jimmy G got paid based on team results rather than real production. Baker is going to bet paid if the Browns make the playoffs, and he will get paid a lot more if they win in the playoffs.
I have been very impressed with Baker, especially the last three weeks.
Look back to last year. Baker was begging and pleading for some real direction from the coaching staff. And yet, how many times did Baker have to burn extra energy and clock time pre-snap just getting others lined up in the proper position because Freddie's offense wasn't long on discipline? It was inevitable that Baker would show some frustration when things didn't work because of ill conceived game plans. Of course, the national media spun that as Baker being "uncoachable".
Fast forward to 2020. Baker is now in the offense that suits him much better. Stefanski has not been perfect, but he is night and day better and more we organized than his predecessor. Just look at how the pre-snap penalties have been cleaned up, how guys are in position and ready to go. No more wasted energy.
Week 8 against the Raiders. Baker was not perfect, but I think he had a TD pass taken away from him by some questionable officiating. A number of his teammates mentally were already at the bye.
But the weather conditions were horrific. Not an excuse, but he needed to learn how to adjust to that. Throwing a ball in a wind tunnel is not ideal.
Week 9 against the Texans was an even more brutal weather day. And your rookie left tackle had his first really bad day. And yet Baker persevered to get the win.
Yesterday, in a monsoon, Baker triumphed again, relying once again on a punishing running game that is finding itself because Teller and Chubb are back. Baker took his shots when needed, but most importantly, did not give the ball away.
More and more, I am appreciating the growth as an NFL QB I am seeing from Baker. Like Shep has been saying all along, let's give him this full year under the tutelage of an aggressive and competent coaching staff and see where we land. The madness of jettisoning head coaches and QBs every two years just has to stop. Baker and Stefanski have shown an awful lot of progress this season. Imagine what they can do when they are really comfortable with each other in year two.
Me? I am riding with number 6.
Browns are 21-20 since he arrived, something like 16-7 at home. They were 3 and a million before that. I wouldn't start all over until he actually sucks, which he has not.
After basically completing 22 straight passes in our last "non weather game," Baker was really good against the Raiders, had 5 key passes dropped, really should've been like 18 of 25 for 235 in shit weather. Not as good against the Texans in a hurricane, but who would've mastered that shit? Then he was damn solid yesterday except for the cringey miss to Hooper wide open in the end zone.
Again, it was pouring rain the entire day. It's gonna affect passers, clearly. Baker didn't wanna say it but also couldn't resist: The ball was often waterlogged.
There's a reason Shanahan is so clearly committing to Jimmy G.: They win with him and not without him because he's good. Not great, but good and can get really hot. He's been to a Super Bowl so there's no question that you can win with him. They were really close to taking home the trophy.
I think Baker will be better than that. I think he has the potential to be great, but I'd take "very good." It's harder to find than many think. I think he suits the offense and they'll grow together, find opportunities to take advantage of his deep arm and accuracy (like the Titans and Tannehill).
I do think they need to pay Chubb, find a way to make it work in a way it almost never does, a second deal for a back. He likes being part of a tandem, how it keeps him fresh and could extend his career. Been doing it his whole life and says he digs it. Both Minnesota and Tennessee paid their backs, same offense.
And they'll need to reduce their WR payroll, it's wildly out of whack for what we do.
I think we're gonna be trouble down the stretch. I really do.
He continues to struggle. I thought for a while he'd flipped the switch, but that didn't last long. And if we're going to excuse his performances based off weather, Haslam either needs to buy a dome or Cleveland isn't the place for Mayfield. You can't perform poorly in bad weather when you play for a team notorious for playing in bad weather for a significant portion of the season... including playoffs. It's just got to be getting really hard to develop a narrative that it isn't an issue. The front office just isn't sitting in there and saying, "Yep, we're super happy to be among the worst passing teams in the NFL despite spending a fortune on receiving talent and having one of the best blocking lines in the NFL." Our system is excellent, the supporting cast is excellent and we're playing a pretty damn easy schedule. There really aren't any excuses to be struggling this greatly. The record is amazing, but it's frustrating how little that record is credit to Mayfield. We're winning despite him - not because of him.
Sorry, but I disagree.
The last 3 games have all been severe weather games...and while he has not thrown a TD, he has also not thrown an INT.
Further, 6 of our games have been against top 11 passing defenses...and we are 4-2 in those games.
The Browns have also thrown the 2nd fewest passes...by design...in the league.
He has thrown the ball 30 times only 3x...and we are 2-1 in those games.
The only 2 games that were NOT against top 11 teams vs passing OR bad weather were both against the Bengals.
38/51, 516 yds, 7 TD, 2 INT
I truly believe this is scheme, not Baker. It should be interesting down the stretch.
I'm with you, DF. Baker has NOT played poorly in weather. He's been consistently better than the other guy. You have to lower the benchmarks when it's pouring rain or 55 MPH winds or both. It's just a fact. Ask the other QBs.
Baker outplayed Carr and Carr's having a Pro Bowl year. Browns receivers just didn't do their part, period. And that was the follow-up to the 22 straight completions. That's hard to spin negatively.
Texans game was ridiculous but still, he didn't turn the ball over. I thought he had a very nice game last Sunday in the elements, threw the ball very well. Misses in the end zone are painful but... again... misses happen in weather with a heavy, wet ball. You look at the larger picture of how he figured it out, and he did.
I feel his frustration with three straight bad-weather games. You don't wanna be an excuse-maker, but it's legit. It's gonna drag down the passing game. He showed that his spin and arm strength can work in weather. He can do it. I thought it was really promising.
I hope we can open it up more against the Jags. It's supposed to rain, again, but not a ton. But we're still not gonna become the Chiefs. That's not what we're doing offensively.
Lamar, Mahomes, Allen, all of them returned to the same offense this year. Mahomes has been in the same offense his entire career. Next season will be the first time Baker gets that. I'll feel more critical at that point.
You're making the point for me because those are some soft gloves to punch with, and he's been in the league too long for that kind of protection. It's almost the end of year three and it isn't wrong to be expecting some form of results from him. There is a reason Stefanski has him throwing less than every other quarterback in the league, and it's not because he's got complete faith in his ability to generate offense.
Call me crazy, but just not throwing a pick for three games isn't enough. Especially when his interceptions are nothing to write home about in the first place. He's got the same amount of interceptions as Josh Allen with 166 fewer attempts, 6 fewer touchdowns and 1,479 fewer yards - DOUBLE the yardage Mayfield has generated. It's fair to wonder if Mayfield is less turnover prone, or if the lack of attempts is helping to hide his turnover numbers. Even the touchdowns have fallen to be meh. He's riding a 5 touchdown game still which puts lipstick on the pig, and already a bunch of his touchdowns are the result of red zone opportunities created by the ground attack or turnovers - not a direct result of his ability to lead sustained drives.
He's almost certainly going to fail to reach 3,000 yards passing. He's looking more and more likely to throw for the fewest TDs in his career yet (He needs eight in five games).
It is a source of comfort to know his stats are *okay* in perfect weather against bad teams, however. I'll give him that, I guess. Even in the other games, I'm content with mediocrity when it isn't impacting on our ability to win games. But we saw against Pittsburgh and Baltimore how badly we need great QB play. We saw against the Raiders how badly we need someone who can step up just a little bit when the ground game isn't functioning as well as it can. Again, all I'm seeing are excuses as to why his lackluster performances are acceptable. The front office won't make those excuses, and Stefanski won't pretend behind closed doors that Mayfield is dead last in the league in passing attempts for any other reason than not having enough trust in him to win us games with the ball in his hand. There is only so long you can pretend this kind of production is either just a big misunderstanding or outright a positive. Mayfield hasn't performed well this year. It's just a fact.
Are you picking up the 5th year?
@Barrels Fuck yeah. We still need to find out what we have in Mayfield. I want to see him in the second year of the offense, without COVID-19 ruining camp/preseason (Assuming ya'll get it together by then) and hopefully with even better surrounding talent. Especially on the defense, which should remove some of the pressures we've seen this year. I'm not writing Mayfield off. At all. But this just hasn't been a good season for him, and neither was last year. I want to see some more consistency, and some more consistent production. And he needs it too before the Browns can make a long-term investment in him. Personally, I think the Browns would be wise to invest a selection in a development quarterback - but I'd say that if Mayfield was playing well, too. We'd be wise to have someone developing behind the scenes in case Mayfield continues to struggle.
BDU, look at the opponents.
Seattle #32 vs pass
NYJ #30 (x2)
Tennessee #27
LV #28 (we had them in a shitstorm)
Miami #20
In fact KC is the ONLY team in the top half of the NFL against the pass that they have played...and not one bad weather game.
Opponents and weather matter.
I don't disagree with that statement. I do think, when it comes to weather, we just don't have room for a guy who can't play in poor weather. The AFC North has unforgiving weather. If he can't play in it, we can't just accept that 1/4 of our season, including the most important time of year. I'm not saying it hasn't impacted his performances, but we just objectively need a quarterback who isn't going to fold in poor weather. I know it's harsh but it is true. You think Pittsburgh or New England win those titles without a quarterback who could play in poor weather? As for our opponents, meh. Who? Steelers, Colts, Ravens, Washington, Dallas, Cinci (x2), Raiders, Texans and Eagles. That's it. That's the schedule we're lamenting as some impossible task for Mayfield to overcome? Not exactly a who's-who of defenses which will be historically remembered. The Steelers are exceptional, although far off the pace of top defenses from previous years, but everyone else is just sort of good. The NFL is having historic levels of production on offense this year. We've faced three teams who allow a passing rating lesser than what Mayfield already has. Even a "top 10" passing defense like Oakland has allowed 2,700 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and a 91 passer rating - which two years ago would have been middle of the pack and three years ago would have been, is shit you not, 20TH IN THE LEAGUE. The COVID-19 situation has hurt defenses far more than offenses, so it's even more troublesome that Mayfield is struggling as greatly as he is. If this is the kind of opponent he's going to struggle against, then yeesh, I don't see a schedule lightening up enough for him to thrive unless the playoffs inexplicably get loaded with teams who can't defend.
BDW, on the year he has 4 games with a rating over 100, another 3 between 70 and 90 (2 in bad weather, 1 against the #4 team against the pass (3-0)), and 3 betwe;en 50 and 70 (Pitt/Bal/LV)...all bad losses.
Baltimore was just a mess, including KS being too attacking. Pittsburgh they lived in the backfield thanks to loss of OL and Chubb, and LV was just the worst weather ever and his WR's let him down big time (Carr completed 3 more passes for 11 yards less).
It is easy to bash...but that is not a bad season. Just not the big numbers some were expecting.
The remaining schedule
Jags: #29 vs pass
Titans: #27 vs pass
Ravens
Giants: #24 vs pass
Jets: #30 vs pass
Steelers
I fully expect his numbers to improve dramatically down the stretch.
Context matters. When you're on the other side, you say context is "excuses." But that doesn't make it so.
A third new offense in three years with no preseason absolutely matters to a young QB. No doubt about it. He was also being "rebuilt" after last season's (understandable) regression, including footwork. It was a lot. I repeatedly said I expect him and the offense to need a little time to get up to speed.
He got there (22 in a row) and then we had 3 straight weather games. Edit: VERY BAD weather games. It does indeed matter. History and statistics say so.
Weather looks good for tomorrow. I expect to see more Bengals Baker than Monsoon Baker. But I wanna add that Baker has not played poorly in this run, considered within the context. He was better overall than the other guys, didn't turn the ball over, and the eyeball test says he has the arm and spin to handle Cleveland weather. We went 2-1 and the game we lost might've been his best of the three. That loss is on the guys at the other end of his throws. For sure.
I'd say we should feel better about his long-term prospects, not worse. He threw the ball quite well last Sunday, including on the run. He had to sling it and he showed off the arm. He missed in the end zone, and it was a clear miss... but misses will happen when elements are that pervasive. A soaked, heavy, slick ball can make the unexpected happen in a fraction of an instant. You don't get a Mulligan. Misses will happen.
I know I say this a lot, but he has every element, he's missing nothing: Elite arm, great thrower, more than nimble enough, smart, hardworking, no off-field issues, natural leader, teammates love him. I always add that up and place my chips there... unless the organization fucks it up and can't make it work.
Dolphins couldn't make Tannehill work. He went from 0 to 60 with the Titans, no hiccups. That's not on Tannehill, it's on the Dolphins. It could end up a win-win, but it became instantly clear that the Dolphins aimed to get better by moving their best player. A QB you can win with. Is he great? Well, he led the league in passing last year, so yeah. But at worst he's very good and you can win a championship with him. Like Baker, I could see the pieces were all there, even if they're a little different. I saw no reason you couldn't succeed with him as your QB.
Can Tua do more than him? No. Flat out objective no. He can't. They're both good, there are some differences, but there's no throw Tua can make that Tannehill can't.
If the Browns moved on from Baker, we'd have to say the same thing: There's nothing (NAME HERE) can do as a passer that Baker can't. He'd go somewhere else and be great because he has everything that adds up to great or at least really good.
Sorry to ramble. But we do agree: You pick up his option so you have him for two more seasons after this one. You 100% give him next season, the first time he goes to camp to more deeply master the same offense, which is almost always the point of separation between QBs who "grow" and those who don't. A few good games in, you pull the trigger on the extension.
Sorry dude, but poor weather and good defenses are an excuse in the NFL. It's literally the epitome of an excuse. Peyton fucking Hillis sitting out with strep is LESS of an excuse.
I'm also growing weary of the whole COVID/3rd year/new offense shtick while rookies are outplaying him - thoroughly - as is basically everyone else, including guys who are in impossibly bad situations while Mayfield has arguably one of the best supporting casts in the entire league.
Everything you've said is based on heaping helps of maybe. Maybe he goes on to play the way Tannehill is. Maybe he can make every throw and do everything. At this stage, I'm just asking him to not be among the worst in the league because this team is good enough to do something if we could just get consistent, top 15 level of play out of our quarterback.
The weird part is - I'm not asking for much. At all. I couldn't possibly be asking for less without asking for him to fail.
I think this much is true: He's in a middle ground area and it's not at all clear that he IS the long-term guy... or that he isn't. We're winning but three really bad weather games stopped him from capitalizing on the 23 straight thing.
We'll agree to disagree on context mattering or not. I think factors like these have absolutely made a difference between the early success of young quarterbacks, especially starting over with a new offense but definitely the lack of preseason. I know Herbert is balling but hey, so did Baker as a rookie.
Lamar, Watson, Dak, Mahomes, et al, have all played in the same offense since they walked into the facility. It 100% matters. But I'm willing to feel differently after we see how Baker does with a training camp in the same offense he played the season before. I'll go Brady Quinn on him and just bail the f out!
But right now? I do think he's the guy for a very long time. But it's a matter of opinion, not a conclusion based on enough evidence. After the complete shit show last year, I see this season as his new rookie campaign in a lot of ways. He's never had a shot to build... on anything.
I also think he bears some responsibility for his own bad self in 2019. He wasn't in the best shape... but the absolute coaching and systems meltdown, those were the real issues.
Today with decent weather is a nice vantage point.
Felt the Jags game was pretty indicative of why I've been critical of Mayfield. He was good, but could have been great. Instead, he narrowly outperformed Mike Glennon and everyone is feeling pretty meh about his performance.
All in all, he had one of his most productive games and made some killer throws. He also had about 5/6 moments which were as awful as you could imagine. He had Hunt and Higgins wide open in the endzone, nobody within 10 yards, and somehow completely missed. He almost cost the Browns the game by throwing so far behind a wide open Hunt that Brendan Weeden felt better about literally every. single. throw he made in his career. That under armed pick six shit was literally more accurate.
It speaks volumes when one of Baker's better games on the year results in him apologising and promising to be better. And that is factoring in that he should have had a 3rd touchdown on the Harrison Bryant drop - which, sadly, was a huge step backwards for him after a promising stint during the Hooper injury.
That's pretty much the story of Baker Mayfield through almost three years. There is something there, but you're always wishing he could do just a little bit more. It's easy to hide it when your ground game routinely knocks out 200 yards and the D holds up well, but Mayfield was again our weakest link on the offense - and it wasn't particularly close.
He was not good enough, no, and it should have been a 14 point blowout.
That said, Stef was also not sharp which made Baker's issues more glaring. Kicking the FG after Baker's two misses was weak and he should have given him another chance to finish the drive. A failure would have buried them deep in their half but instead they get the kickoff and score and we're now -3 instead of a worst-case +1.
Later, Stef does not kick when he probably should have to go up 11 and while I generaly love that aggressive call, sometimes you should just do the distasteful thing and kick the FG to go up 11.
All in all, a totally forgettable win is preferable to a memorable loss so we call this one a good scrimmage and get ready for a real game against TEN.
IMO, Lamar has reached his ceiling.
"@bakermayfield hasn't thrown an interception in his past 123 consecutive passing attempts, spanning five games. During that stretch, he has 7 passing TDs, 0 INTs, a 106.9 rating, 1 AFC Offensive Player of the Week award and the Browns are 4-1."
A Tweet. And fans can bring themselves to say that he's not good enough. Now 20-20 as a starter after 4-48. Wake up, people. We finally have a QB.
Sure, the weird whiffs were galling. He's gonna keep getting better running the same offense over time. Brady got 20 years of it. If Baker is 25-10 this year (he's on track for that), we can expect a big leap next year, some actual scheme continuity. 67% and 30/7 seems realistic... and that's a Pro Bowl and you can win a Super Bowl with that.
The two "non weather games" sandwiching the three monsoons: 41 of 57 for 555, 7 TDs and 1 INT. So yeah. Weather matters to all QBs.
Geezus, thank you for being the engineer on the Baker Sunshine and Rainbows Train because, Christ on a pogo stick, Browns fans are weird about QBs, man.
We finally -- FINALLY -- have an NFL-caliber QB and people want to talk about ... I don't honestly know what.
He misses throws? He isn't big enough? He...what?
For fook's sake, he is LEADING this team to VICTORIES and people now suddenly want...style points?
Fook that. This offense is my literal dream come true. We just go out and savage teams with an outstanding offensive line, a smart QB and two -- TWO! -- killer RBs.
We have three -- THREE! -- good to acceptable TEs and three -- THREE! -- average to above average WRs.
And we have an actual damn COACH, who puts ALL his guys in positions to succeed. Those wide open receivers Baker missed? THEY WERE WIDE DAMN OPEN. Let's not sleep on that, people!!!!
This isn't Hue sending Kizer out to run option at the three. This isn't that Stanford-running-QB doing God knows what. This isn't hand it to "The Crow" (good Lord, it's kinda embarrassing to even think about that now, isn't it?) and pray. This isn't "wow, Joe Thomas didn't give up a sack this game that we lost 24-6, that was cool!"
This is FOOTBALL people. Cleveland Browns FOOTBALL club, est. 1946.
This shit has POTENTIAL. So stop bitching, start enjoying, and let's get that Titans thread up and running!!!!