We have a "star-studded lineup," so it's gonna be a necessary conversation. And more stars are emerging, including one that surprises nobody: Larry Ogunjobi, and he's in a contract year.
Right now, Larry is the #1 DT against the run and #2 overall. He'd be an All Pro. And it's no an accident, he came into the season cut up like a monster. I say surprises nobody because the team has always seemed to know it was more when than if with him taking the next step.
Message from your sponsor: The top 2 PFF rookie DL in the NFL are playing Sunday in Cleveland. One is Chase Young. The other is Jordan Elliott. The guy who's season screamed 1st round but he went in the 3rd round because, uhm... shit, I never did figure it out. I did read that he was a late bloomer but he's bloomed.
A ton of mocks have had the Browns taking an IDL in R1 next season... but I'd start rethinking that. Ogunjobi is gonna get paid. Makes zero sense to develop him into a star and then try to replace him. Sheldon's tearing it up, too, not sure how long he's under contract but you surely wouldn't let him go. Right now we have arguably the best DL in football, or right up there.
Seems like the long-term starter opposite Myles isn't on the roster. Also seems likely we'll be watching our LBs and safeties very closely the rest of the season, but I still won't be stunned if some combo of Ronnie Harrison, Joseph, Redwine, Mack Wilson, Malcolm Smith, Phillips, BJ, and Sione don't coalesce. And good news on Delpit in March also changes that equation.
I'd lay money on Baker, Denzel, and Larry getting paid. Chubb? I know they'll try so it comes down to whether he values career longevity V. a bigger 4-year deal with the accompanying workload. If anybody would accept a longer deal (5 years) for a little less per year, it might be Chubb.
We're gonna be a lot like the Rams, I think. We have such clear cornerstones at cornerstone positions... and any DL is cornerstone-ey even if it isn't in the big 5 (QB, LT, WR1, Edge, CB). We'll have big money tied up at 6 positions and then probably at RB.
I'm saying OBJ is gone.
Somewhat connected to "big picture": Didn't realize Gustin ran a 4.69 and jumped 35.5" at 6'4" and 255 (not sure what he is now). Clearly not just an effort guy, also something of a freak. No ceiling to hit.
Add in the sneaky early draft pick of Curtis Weaver, couple candidates for the long-term bookend to Myles. You gotta find some of those, only get one first rounder a year and not everybody can make 14m.
Browns need at least one of their drafted safeties and one of their drafted LBs to become long-term pieces.
First you have to look at the cap figure that is either falling off, or can be created:
2021 Free Agents
1) Olivier Vernon $11M
2) BJ Goodson $2.4M
Creatable Cap
1) OBJ $15.75M and/or Landry $11.8M
2) S. Richardson $12M
3) D. Njoku $6M
Just looking at above, I see Vernon and Goodson gone in FA. I also would not be surprised to see Richards, OBJ and Njoku gone as well.
That is $47.15M extra for the cap.
We can easily fit in Chubb, Ogunjobi, and get a new contract for Mayfield and Ward as well (a year early).
The Browns are in EXCELLENT position with the cap.
okay, let's march this out
Contract status:
MG - 2026, then UFA
OV - 2020, then UFA
AC - 2021, then UFA
Gustin - 2020, then ERFA
Larry O. - 2020, then UFA
Sheldon - 2021, then UFA
Elliott - 2023, then UFA
So, for 2021, you start with MG, AC, Sheldon and Elliott before you draft or sign anyone. That's pretty good.
Not sold Sheldon will be long term...he is 30 next year and costing over $10M...but he is playing lights out for now.
Depends what the price is on Larry Ogunjobi. I could see Sheldon moved with his cap space being re-dedicated to Larry. I could see the Browns letting Larry walk if his asking price is too high and enjoying the comp pick. Either way, Jordan Elliot is what great teams do. Identify a difficult upcoming decision and draft a young, cheap replacement to step in when the decision is made. Regardless of who moves on, I like what I've seen from Elliot.
I can see the Browns moving on from OV. He didn't impress last year and he didn't start well to this campaign either. Frankly, Gustin and Clayborn have both been more disruptive. I'd anticipate a draft selection and Curtis Weaver battling it out with Clayborn and Gustin (Cost depending) next season. Some nice depth going on there at a vital position.
As for Odell and/or Landry, it depends on Mayfield. If he lights it up, I could see the Browns moving on from one or both as Mayfield's comfort grows with the game and this system. He can't have a $30M pacifier forever. If he continues his struggles, they're not going to throw away two of the best receivers in the game just because Baker couldn't make it work.
Either way, agreed we're in a great cap situation. Dorsey/Berry have done a nice job on that front.
Need to add a name I forgot...
MG - 2026, then UFA
OV - 2020, then UFA
AC - 2021, then UFA
Gustin - 2020, then ERFA
Larry O. - 2020, then UFA
Sheldon - 2021, then UFA
Elliott - 2023, then UFA
Billings - 2021, then UFA
Agree with you all, DL wise, we're full of super reasonable options, and luckily, those options don't require us to draft a round 1 DL and pray he works out.
Credit AB for drafting the top graded rookie IDL in Elliott. He's in line to be on the all-rook team at this early juncture.
As long their play continues as-is, I'm 100% on board with keeping all DL's on their current contracts. Enough with this salary cap champions stuff. Sheldon and AC aren't that expensive, Myles doesn't hit his new contract until 2023, Gustin will be a reasonable signing, etc etc.
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After 2 weeks, there are 7 teams allowing fewer than 100 rush yards per game:
1. #Steelers - 66.5, 2.9 AVG
2. #Seahawks - 69.5, 3.0 AVG
3. #Bills - 75.5, 4.1 AVG
4. #Buccaneers - 84.5, 2.9 AVG
5. #Colts - 85.5, 4.2 AVG
6. #Browns - 89.5, 4.3 AVG
7. #Ravens - 94.5, 4.3 AVG
Run the ball and stop the run! Who are we and what year is it?! I kid. It matters, especially in this offense.
Speaking of... we're paying OBJ prices but are unlikely to ever get the Full OBJ Experience. This really, truly is not the offense for him... and I do question whether and when he'll be a "winning WR."
Randy Moss became one. It happens, guys growing their games and prioritizing winning over raw numbers. Again, Diggs couldn't handle it even though he had a terrific year by every measure except looks. He had his best YPC, was among the league leaders in catches over 20, had over 1,100 yards... but it just wasn't enough.
The Vikings are clearly missing something now. I would think Stefanski is a ginormous part of it, one of the league's top playcallers. Diggs? They drafted his replacement but right now Cousins is shitting himself publicly, makes me feel less stupid about him.
Clearly OBJ scares safeties back and affects the running game. We need someone like that. Hodge and DPJ are both big and fast, prototype big play guys. Landry, Hooper, and Hunt are crosses and rhythm stuff, perfect for the offense, need someone a little scary.
Does not have to be at OBJ prices because I just don't see that paying out. Rams lost their get-deep guy, paid the two "dependables," elevated Reynolds (has a lot of get-deep in him), drafted a speedster. Outcome: They gotta wear shades.
News is that the salary cap will actually be 'reduced' by about $22.2M in 2021. The Browns have an 'effective' cap (Represents the maximum cap space a team will have when it signs at least 51 players to its roster for that season). That means unless they cut some players (OBJ, etc) they will likely be at about break even.
Saw that. Some teams are gonna be really strapped, cutting left and right. Gonna be a ton of short-term contract fixes to squeeze people in.
Browns likely would like to add a f/a or two at weak spots... so I would guess they'll be trying to divorce from a couple big deals, too. OBJ is a tough one, right? Because he can't be cut for injury?
They might be able to trade him for nothing. Might have to throw in a pick. I could see a fast WR in R1 to go with Landry, Higgins, and Hodge... then a run of defenders at 2, 3A, 3B. And a priority free agent on top.
Plus Delpit, Weaver, Billings, Greedy, and a full year of Ronnie. Whoa, that's a lot.
F/A - DE
R2 - LB
R3 - CB
On top of the returnees and Weaver, that's a lot of juice.
I am willing to bet there will be a last minute negotiation where the NFLPA basically 'borrows' future cap space over like a 5 yr period to keep the cap at least neutral for 2021.
They are saying drop by $22.2 M right now, but the cap has historically gone up about $10M a year....so for 2021 stays neutral (or even goes up by $2.8M) and the next 5 years it goes up only $5M instead of the expected $10M.
Veteran players are in danger of getting cut if the cap drops, so they will vote for it....same for players expecting a contract in the next couple years...and the net is neutral to advantageous in the long run for the owners.
OBJ is out. I love him, he's so talented, but it just isn't a fit for whatever reason. I do feel everyone gave it their best, nobody is at fault, but it hasn't worked.
Saves us money to lock down Chubb and Teller. Lock down Higgins if the price is right, and find a burner for Mayfield in the draft because I feel like he's missing that. Load up the D and watch 'em roll.
We need a trade partner because I don't think we can cut him. Coming off a knee injury, I hope the other team wouldn't put it into Osweiler territory and want a 2nd round pick to carry his salary (at exactly the wrong time, when cap ain't shooting up).
I think the Browns would love to move him and do just what we said here, locked down Chubb and Higs and add a rookie contract to the WR corps, maybe even R1.
But there's definitely a scenario where we have to keep him for one more year. It's hardly a travesty and could work out great, but it would affect the timing on Chubb. Might have to let him play his 4th season and have a franchise tag in our back pocket, then negotiate in that environment (LeVeon, but congenial).
I'm kind of amazed at how much work OBJ is already doing. He's definitely making a point to show that he's gonna be ready, which makes perfect sense. I would not be at all surprised if he'd like to move out of this offense, making it a mutual thing.
On defense, it's like we already have a lot of "draft picks" coming in: Delpit, Greedy, Weaver, and Billings are pretty serious additions. Harrison for a camp and full season. A healthy Jacob Phillips all season. Mack and Sione have really been stepping up, so player development is key.
Won't need a ton of bodies. Just a few key ones, like a priority f/a and a 2 and 3. LB, edge, corner in some order.