Well, wasn't that something last night? Not only did Baker shine brightest when we needed him most on his biggest stage yet, but we had a front row seat to the crumbling of our archrival's empire. I don't know what feels better, us advancing or seeing Big Ben in tears.....
I will take the advancing, all day everyday.
We found out that Michael Dunn, in Joel Bitonio's absence, can play at a high level. We all hope Bit is back for Sunday, but it is reassuring to know that the cupboard is not bare behind Bit.
The player we desperately need back is Denzel Ward. Not only does he make a huge impact on the field, his presence will keep Robert Jackson where he belongs, as a special teams player. The thought of him defending Tyreek Hill is, uhh... scary.
I won't count this team out against the high powered Chiefs. Maybe we are in for a 52-50 Browns win. The fun starts Sunday at 3 pm. No more late night games, thank goodness.
Anyone want to place any bets as to how much CBS is salivating over a Mayfield - Mahomes matchup? I bet we get the A Team of Romo and Nantz.
GO BROWNS!
Getting closer to full strength.
NFL Network saying Browns should be at FULL ROSTER if no changes occur between now and Sunday.
The stats on Denzel V. No Denzel are stunning. We're a different pass defense when he plays. We desperately need our full allotment of DBs and it seems like that's gonna happen.
But the stat we'll be hearing and talking about all week: The Browns have the best offensive line and RB tandem in the NFL. The Chiefs are 31st in run defense. They always struggle against the Raiders or Titans, teams that bring that kind of physicality on offense.
And we'll be bringing it. Mahomes will spend more time on the sideline than he'd like for sure. And when they stack the box, Baker will make them pay.
Wanna blitz him? Might wanna check the stats on last night's game first. He scorched the blitz.
Wow. I did not realize that the Chiefs were THAT BAD against the run. Let's hit them with a couple of Chubb haymakers to start, and then let Kareem work out any frustration he has against his former team.
Who Knew?
Based on the last 8 weeks of the season, the Browns have been better:
Browns Offense: 25.25
Chiefs Offense: 27.5
Browns Defense: 22.75
Chiefs Defense: 26.25
Score:
Browns 26
Chiefs 25
Here's the damn thing, fellas: there is no team left I fear if -- IF -- we have our non-injured players back.
We need Denzel, we need Bitonio, we need Conklin and losing any other d-linemen makes things dicey.
But let's have some real fun for a moment and allow ourselves to now dream of a non-COVIDy week, where we get EVERYONE back and we prepare, and practice, to play a real NFL contender. Can we be a contender now, THIS WEEK?
Hell yes, we can. We really can.
Our offense is legit. Our defense is sub-standard but one of the benefits of all the backups playing is that we suddenly have packages and guys to run out there that we never would have had otherwise. Redwine has improved, MJ has improved, even Jackson may be on his way to 5th CB (in a zone scheme at least).
Not to mention Takitaki looking like a pro, Phillips flying around, Smith and Goodson providing stability, Clayborn and Gustin making plays, Taylor and Elliott providing meaningful reps, the list goes on.
The beauty of a tournament is you simply have to be the best team each week, for four weeks. Just four.
If the Browns can play ground and pound and run their boot game, with the empty sets thrown in, it's not crazy to think they can shorten the game enough to keep it within reach.
And if the Chiefs pull some wild shit like the Steelers did and give away possessions and points and allow Browns to play their game from ahead?
Shocking the world is on the table.
Would play Olumba over Jackson if Ward misses.
Spot on, Barrels. I know the kid is giving everything he's got, but the sad fact is he is just not talented enough. I, too, was shocked Olumba wasn't retained in September.
Show them you belong, Donovan.
BDU, great thoughts, as always. Awesome facts on KC's wins, I hadn't realized that myself.
KC could blow us out, yes. But we also are a nightmare for their defense. We do everything well that they don't defend well.
At this point, after Sunday, I'm comfortable saying this: there is no TEAM that is obviously better than the Browns remaining IF we get everyone back and have no more COVID losses. I won't even use Conklin as an excuse because injuries are a normal football thing and if we don't have COVID issues, we'll be able to practice so Lamm can get reps.
Our defense with Denzel is different. Our defense with three functioning safeties is different. Our defense with BJ, Malcolm and Phillips/Takitaki is different.
And our offense has now proven, without question, that they can score on anyone. They are not and have never been the issue.
So what's the conclusion? Just like the PIT game, we have to balance running clock with scoring. We can't just pound away and not score and we can't EVER kick FGs.
I want to see us do EXACTLY what we did to PIT: Come out early and aggressive, mix it up, try to go up and stay up. Only run clock if/when we build a big lead.
More likely: just keep up and keep scoring and hope for the best on D.
Deep Dive:
Over the last 8 games, Baker Mayfield has a QB rate of 108.1 (14/1 TD-INT ratio) while Patrick Mohommes is at 99.96 (19/6 TD-INT ratio)....that's right, BAKER has the higher QB rating.
Over the same period, the Browns D has a QB rate against of 88.43 while the Chiefs D has a QB rate against of 98.92....a HUGE difference. During that time, the Browns have given up 15 passing TD's, but had 8 INT's...the Chiefs have given up 20 passing TD's with 7 INT's.
Rushing the ball, the Browns have a significant advantage with over 20 yards a game more...even while the Browns have been focusing on getting the passing game going into the playoffs. They have also had 13 rushing TD's to only 6 for the Chiefs over the same 8 game stretch.
Scoring? Browns average 29.75, Chiefs 27.5
Defense? Browns average 24.5, Chiefs 26.25
Over the ENTIRE course of the year, the Chiefs are the superior team, however over the final 8 weeks of the season, the BROWNS are the better club...at least statistically.
Keep making the Kool-Aid, boys. 'Cuz I keep taking big 'ol gulps.
Baker and the boys gunna shock the world on Sunday....
Lights went on for Baker in that Game 7 Bengals matchup, specifically in the second half with the 23 straight. Yeah, the weather game stats won't be as pretty but overall, he became a legit top 10 QB that day.
Where you fall on that list changes, slides around -- he's been in the top 2 or 3 for about six weeks now -- but I'm more than comfortable calling him Top 10.
The combination of our OL and RBs is #1, no doubt in my mind. You put all that together, having the QB and the running game, and teams have a right to worry.
Great points about who were are right now. We're a team that beat the Colts, Titans, and Steelers and should've beaten the Ravens. That's who we are right now. We're a very good team... and a very good team can win on any given Sunday.
I watch every Chiefs game all the way through. Lived there for 18 years, my wife is a native. They've been different this season. As someone said, the Bills are what you want the Chiefs to be, dominant and scary. The Chiefs win a lot of games where you have to say, "Well, that's what good teams do, win when they're not at their best."
But they've been doing that every week. They start slow. It's like previous Ohio State teams, where it frustrates you to see them struggling to put away Michigan State.
Feels to me like they've been skating around on thin ice for a while. They're defense isn't what it was down the stretch last season. I think they're more of a really good team than a great one right now, regardless of the record.
I think we can win. I know the odds are against it but we can.
Great points on all fronts.
This again feels like a 60/40 game, which is where I settled in my mind by 8 p.m. on Sunday: we lost 60% of the time because they're better, but they're not THAT much better.
They are likely Mahomes to Kelce and Hill better, which means, in a roughly equal game, they score more points than us thanks to those three guys, alone, 60% of the time.
But like PIT, if they make bad mistakes, and we take advantage, that percentage can swiftly flip. On Sunday, that first TD instantly made the game 50/50 vs. 60/40 for them. If KC does something equally silly? Same thing is possible.
That said, we're going to need the same formula, plus some. All our best need to best and all our good need to be better. No more Hooper drops and Higgs alligator arms. We're gonna need Gustin and Taylor level contributions again.
And Myles finding a way to change the game would be nice, too.
I feel like our offense can drum their defense pretty good. Agree that if we can get Hoops and Higs back to who they've been, the offense should hum.
But I really do think the key to the whole game is getting Denzel and KJ back, especially the former (since MJ has been pretty damn good). We're exponentially better against the pass with Ward covering the best WR.
When Myles and Denzel are present and right, we're on a different level. That level still isn't all that good but it isn't atrocious.
Being basically Vernon away from complete sounds pretty damn good. Gives us a puncher's chance.
Browns are activating Ward and Johnson today!!! Our secondary is back to full strength!!!
Hey Shep - here is the stats to back up your point.
Saw some stat on (I think) passer rating when he's in or out. It's a massive change, like our running game with or without Teller. They're both legit difference makers.
The Browns D has been questioned more than any unit remaining in the playoffs.
Interesting stat: of the 340 total points scored against the Browns, 157 of them were scored with the Browns ahead b at least 10 points.
That is 46% of all points given up were with a double digit lead.
More importantly, the Browns are 9-0 in games they achieved at least a 10 point lead.
So..is the D really that bad, or have we played an exorbitant amount of prevent???
AWESOME stats that I just caught up on, DF. Thanks for posting them!
Answer: both. If our D was better, we'd keep those leads without as much garbage time TDs.
But I agree with the general point that Woods is doing a far better job choking teams out with limited talent than he's generally being given credit for.
I mean, my goodness, we've been playing our fifth and sixth corner, our third and fourth safeties, our third and fourth LBs, and heavy minutes to all d-line backups. This is a true TEAM defense, if there ever was one.
Overall, this D is better when we're winning and feasts on mistakes. It's not talented but it's not awful, either.
And they'll need to do their part again on Sunday, especially if we can get the lead.
More fun stats:
The Chiefs have blitz on 38.9 percent of opposing dropbacks this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Kansas City has allowed the #4 passer rating when blitzing at 81.8, and #5 lowest completion percentage at 57.3 percent.
Mayfield was at 65.4 percent when getting the ball out quickly against the Steelers, a better defense with a better pass rush, and that falls in line with his performance against the blitz over the entire season.
Mayfield has completed 67 percent of his passes against the blitz for an average of 8.2 yards per attempt, a 15-3 TD-INT ratio and a top-five passer rating at 113.6.
Blitz away Chiefs...or drop back and let Chubb/Hunt gash you all day.
We can do this, boys.....
(in my best Steve Harvey voice)
We gunna shock the world!