The Browns, after 18 years, have made the playoffs. With an 11-5 record. The last time the Browns won 11 games was 1994. That year was also the last time the Browns won a playoff game, defeating the NE Patriots 20-13 before losing to Pittsburgh in the divisional round. In fact, Pittsburgh eliminated the Browns the last 2 times they have made the playoffs (2002).
In the history of the rivalry, the Browns own a 78-59-1 lead...but since the return in 1999, the Steelers have owned the Browns with a 38-6 record.
This Sunday the Browns face the Steelers again in the most important game since the return. Odds makers have the Steelers 6 point favorites (was 3.5 before COVID struck). The Steelers are set not only to get back their guys they rested last week, but several from injury...although Joe Haden will NOT be one of them.
Meanwhile, the Browns just lost Stefanski, Hodge, and Bitonio. Bitonio is critical as the Browns OL depth has taken several hits of late with Hubbard and Harris on IR. Dunn, a player who has primarily been on practice squads since 2017, will likely be the starting LG. The Browns are likely to get Ward back, as well as a few others from their list, but will it be enough.
Narratives have said the Steelers blew out the Browns when at full strength and almost won the game with backups. I looked back. The first game was a perfect storm. Chubb was out. Teller was out. Baker had bad ribs. Landry had bad ribs/hip. 2 INT's and a failed 4th down attempt snowballed into a blow out. The Steelers managed only 297 yards. The second game...was not as close as the score. The Browns controlled the game completely until 2 late TD's made the score close...and in both cases relied on deep passes where if the Browns defender had only turned around they would have been INT's. So no...the Steelers do NOT own the Browns this year.
So...the real question is...can the Browns overcome the loss of Stefanski, Vernon and Bitonio?
Stefanski will be involved in the game planning all the way up to kickoff. Priefer has actually been HC for a game and did a decent job. He also is a very long tenured coach and is well respected. Van Pelt will be calling the plays. He did so in 2009 with Buffalo, but since then has primarily been a QB coach. With that said, he seems to be on the same page as Stefanski, and will have the scripted plays and game plan created with Stefanski to guide him.
Vernon out is an issue, but we saw some younger guys step up. I think the DL can do the job.
My biggest concern is the loss of Bitonio. As mentioned above, Dunn or some other inexperienced player will be the only options. Hopefully Teller will be full strength and be able to do a lot of pulling for the run game.
Steelers have the ball: The Steelers can't run the ball. The Browns are decent at stopping the ball. In fact the backup DL are better against the run than Vernon. I believe the Browns will make sure to stop the run and clog up the short game...especially if Ward is back...to force Ben to show he can go deep with accuracy.
Browns have the ball: The Browns OL is going from a strength to a question mark. They will try to run the ball early and often. They NEED to run the ball to keep Baker clean. Baker also needs to test them deep. Hopefully DPJ is back from concussion, or they can work Hall in. If the Steelers can get to Baker this will be a very long game...and not in a good way.
Great stuff, DF. Awesome way to kick us off.
I can see only one way out of this: old school grind. All game. Over and over and over. Dirty it up. All day. Pick deep shots off PA. Avoid shotgun. Avoid straight drops.
I'd go heavy, 12 and 13 sets and throw in some 21 and 22 to get Hunt out there with Chubb some moer. Run, run, run and sneak, if need be, then do it again. Let the Steelers know what kind of game it will be early. Don't pass at all, analytics be damned.
I'd consider how to work Lamm in along with the new kid. Maybe throw some crazy wrinkles like moving Wills inside and putting Lamm on his left for a series. Better yet: run tackle eligibles and have Lamm lineup on the left. Wills can then help the kid out.
I just can't see us winning a shootout, no matter how good Baker plays. The defense can't hold up and our strength is our RBs and TEs. Time to lean in.
In my ideal world, we open just like last week and Chubb scores. Except this week, we don't alternate whole series. We mix Hunt in with Chubb out there. We throw out of sets with the two of them. We call screens to mess up their timing.
In short, we simply have to keep the ball, shorten the game and hope the D can do enough. I don't see any other way through.
Love that Lamm gets the start at LG. Makes sense on every level but mostly: Our running game is a Teller-Chubb partnership and that's intact. And Lamm is both a veteran next to the rook and a very good pass blocker for those play-action shots we'll be taking.
I actually like our odds in a shoot-out. Our QB is better than theirs, period. I think the Steelers got their best passing performance of the past five games from Mason Rudolph and his downfield accuracy. Ben's become mostly a dink and dunker, his arm is pretty shot... but he did find a way for a half against the Colts.
The biggest key for me is Denzel Ward. Having Myles, Ward, Harrison, and an emerging Jacob Phillips feels like an actual foundation of an actual defense. So much faster than what we've been fielding. Harrison/Phillips instead of Sendejo/Goodson is dramatic.
If we get Denzel back, we're down to dealing with the losses of Bitonio and Vernon... and Stefanski. It's not ideal but it also isn't a guaranteed loss. The Steelers one decent half over the last five games does not change the fact that their record is bloated. They lost to the Bengals straight up.
We can run AND pass better than the Steelers. Don't go back to the first part of the season to draw any conclusions because that's not who these teams are now.
Baker has been a top five passer for 10 games now; Ben has not. Chubb is one of the best RBs in the NFL. They have nobody close. We have the best OL in football per PFF. They do not.
I think right now, today, the Browns are the better football team. We're in a Covid pinch for sure... but I don't know that it flips the game for me. I think we should still expect to win, honestly.
As far as Lincoln Riley's "see opportunities": Man, is this one of those for Baker Mayfield or what?
Just a thought...Stefanski has been a great play caller, but he has also developed a few 'tells' or 'patterns' along the way. Alex Van Pelt will have the benefit of having Stefanski's input all the way up to game time, but he has ZERO tape on him and how he will call the game once off script.
Is this actually an 'advantage'? The key to success on offense is often keeping the defense off balance. If they don't have a 'pattern' to help them...
just a thought
Good news....no new postives, and no high risk close contacts either.
Whew, I'm so glad when I popped back in here that it's all good news so far!
Shep, great points on us "being better" and talent-wise, you're probably correct. But there is such a thing as experience, culture and a head coach.
And we're missing ours. That is a HUGE loss that simply can't be calculated.
As I said on The Athletic, it will take heroic effort for us to win. Do we have enough heroes?
We do. We really do. But it will take an effort unlike any we've ever seen.
Is it our turn to make history? Man, I hope so. I really, REALLY would love to see it.
BJ Goodson has been activated and will play
S Elijah Benton has been activated from COVID/Practice Squad
C Anthony Fabiano has been signed
I was frustrated last week because it just didn't feel like a "Win or go home" type of effort from our guys. I mean, compare that to the energy Cinci came out with just because JuJu danced on their logo. They played with an emotion, physicality and desire which fucking rattled the Steelers.
I wonder if the loss of Stefanski, Bitonio and a week of hearing about how they may as well not even bother showing up actually fuels a little fire.
It might actually provide a boost we need because we've been so flat over the last two performances.
Totally agree. The Bengals came out ready to fuck somebody up (and did). The Steelers "culture" is in large part very Cobra Kai (yes, I'm 100% addicted). Even in the NFL, a grown man's league, some teams manage to intimidate and "strike first, no mercy," to keep the metaphor alive.
Steelers and Ravens are the best at it and they're our rivals. You have to come out and not just "stand up to them," you have to take it to them. It's real.
We need to hit Big Ben. A lot. And a fair but violent hit on Claypool seems like a good idea, too. Need to win line v. line, even without Bitonio.
Then all the pretty stuff can happen.
Unfortunately...the Browns facility remains closed this morning. Hard to get up for a game you haven't even practiced for.
Ugh, that's frustrating. On the other hand...keeping guys apart is not a terrible idea.
That said, we need a walk through, at least. Hope they can get out there tomorrow.
Agree, BDU and Shep: we'll need more attitude and fire this week.
Which is why, like I said in the Narrative thread, I want to just pound the damn rock. I want to see us attack this front to open up easy throws for Baker and hopefully some tricks and treats, too.
But I don't see how we win playing passively or trying to be too fine. It's going to have to be a slugfest and we're going to have to win it that way.
Found an interesting tidbit on G Dunn...
In his lone season in the AAF, Dunn was considered one of the premier run-blockers where he played both Guard and Tackle.
That may be good news for the run game if he ends up starting this Sunday.
Not that stats tell the entire picture...but based on the last 8 weeks:
Baker 20/33, 210 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
Rushing 30/135, 2 TD
Big Ben 25/40, 250 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing 22/87, 0 TD
Browns 24
Steelers 21
Harrison out with COVID; Sendejo IN
GEEZUS, we can't catch a break.
I'm literally praying that Denzel can play. That would be nearly necessary.
Sendejo...I'm not sure he helps much back there.
So we've got no players, no coach and we're going against the well rested division leader who have buttered our bread for twenty years.
Sounds like not much can go wrong and we're in a really good position to win.
Yeah, if Ronnie's out, God has to give us Denzel.
I'd feel better about the game if they can get on the practice field, which they haven't done since Sunday, and which they've done once since the Jets game. One practice in 2 weeks.
If they can't practice, that's just a horrible way to go out if they lose Sunday.
Well, damn. I had a hot shit post written and forget to hit "publish" and then nuked it by accident. Instead, I agree with Grimm: this team got so screwed this week, I can't imagine being pissed at anything that happens. Pure enjoyment on Sunday.
Let's hope they take that energy and play balls out. Literally, ain't got nothin' to lose, boys.
Just go play. Make us proud.
Browns finally get to practice. 4:30pm today. Guess the NFL realized most people would call BS if the Browns never got to practice and still had to play Sunday.
I don't think most people would call BS - it would be BS, but it's easier to get jokes in about the Browns than it is to look at literally any context.
And given that the NFL cultivates a dialogue that centers the ethos of Coach Noexcuses McBusinesstrip, no one would care at all about (fair!), then it would be forgotten, then held against them until they won a playoff game.
NFL discourse - it's very dumb!
More good news....DPJ is back from concussion protocol.
I'm watching Arthur Moats breaking down film on Youtube, and he's pointing out something on the defense that I've pointed out too - their guys played really, really well. They're back-ups, sure, but they had one hell of a game.
Moats is very excited about these guys, some of whom are tipped to be the incoming replacements for some of their aging talent. This isn't just your average, every day back-up players. These are some of the guys they want in the future to assume starting duties who have developed in rotation behind long-term players.
I still think this was most glaring at quarterback. Mason Rudolph played better than Roethlisberger has in several months and it wasn't particularly close. He was like 5/8 on deep throws and when he did make mistakes, they didn't pay for them, so he also had a bit of luck on their side. I genuinely won't be shocked if their offense is actually worse with Roethislberger and Pouncey back in the line up - who, at this stage of their careers, are much bigger names than they are players. Their replacements last week, Hassenauer and Rudolph, earned almost identical PFF grades on the year. So, um, what step back?
Meanwhile, they had their most success in the passing game abusing Robert Jackson, who gave up like half of our passing yards. Is he a step down from Denzel Ward? Yeah. A fucking big step down.
The ones that scare me are Hayward and Watt. While the guys played very well, they're elite players coming back. Overall, however, I'm not sure how much better they get.
It sucks to lose Kevin, Bitonio and Harrison. No doubt. But if we get enough of those names back off the injury list, I feel we're actually coming out ahead. They, on the other hand, could find themselves in a situation where they don't have everything going right and could falter.