Hmmm, I guess they figure a split on the pick-um games.

With that said:

Cin - Rookie QB vs our D

Was - Who is the QB?

Ind - Rivers, but he hasn't been great in years

Cin - again, rookie QB

LV - In Cleveland, so yes

Phi - In Cleveland, so yes

Jax - Who is the QB?

NYG - In Cleveland, and not a good team

NYJ - Not sold on Darnold...or Flacco

Pitt - In Cleveland, and by then Ben is likely gone again

Ten - I don't buy Tannehill, reminds me of Foles 1 year wonder

I get 11. I am not sold on beating Houston, but it is possible.

Even with the loss of pre-season, I think 9 is the basement, with 10-11 reasonable, and 12 if we get all the breaks.

I'm currently struggling with being an underdog to the Steelers home or on the road. They weren't good last year... and Ben wasn't good his last full year as a starter and now he's 3 years older. I think they might actually be bad.

Also... Jaguars? Seriously? I would've favored us in those three games for sure.

At Ravens and at Cowboys are the only real "underdog" games on our schedule. Everything else, we should go into expecting to win.

Our least winnable game is week 1. Otherwise, all the rest are totally winnable.

The only week 1 hope is we come in with a massive chip on our shoulder, and they come in over-confident. It could happen, and it's not like we don't have the studs or the smarts.

I have no ability to do that suppressing of hope/expectations thing. Many times in many parts of my life, seriously wish I did.

I do not see any team with the 2nd best offensive personnel in the NFL going into any game thinking they can't win. And we're gonna have a solid to good defense, probably better than KC's.

Not one team should count us as a win. Makes no sense.

Funny enough, even if Baker goes down w/ injury, we’re still a tough out to get.

That’s not the NFL norm. We’re lucky that way, or well run.

My gut feeling re: the spread W1 +8.5 @ BAL LOSS

W2 -8 vs CIN WIN

W3 -9 vs WAS WIN

W4 +4.5 @ DAL LOSS

W5 -1 vs IND LOSS

W6 +4.5 @ PIT LOSS

W7 -3 @ CIN WIN

W8 -5 vs LV WIN

W10 -2.5 vs HOU LOSS

W11 pk vs PHI LOSS

W12 +1 @ JAX WIN

W13 +4 @ TEN LOSS

W14 +3.5 vs BAL LOSS

W15 -1 @ NYG WIN

W16 pk @ NYJ WIN

W17 -1 vs PIT LOSS So today, riding a wave of optimism, my gut has us at a quick 7-9 which feels about right. We're a middling team, IMO, until we start playing in a manner that suggests otherwise. You hold a gun to my head and ask me how I feel about that record? Well considering all the NEW, new FO/Coaching staff especially. I wouldn't hate a 7-9 season as there are likely 2-3 games that could go either way, we are winning games but can't close out consistently. Plenty to feel good about going in to Stefanski's second year. Most importantly, we win 7 games IMO it's probable Baker has calmed our anxieties and established himself as our QB for the time being.

With Kitchens and OL problems the Browns went 3-3 against the AFCN...now with a better team you think we go 2-4? Sorry EE, I don't buy it. The Browns will steal at least 1...more likely 2 from Bal/Pitt.

Like others have pointed out, if not for Kitchens inexplicable play calling at the end of the 1st half in game 2, the Browns sweep Baltimore...and should have swept Pitt too.

I mean the way I look at it things are the way they are until they aren't. We historically struggle against Pittsburgh, mightily in fact. We stole one from Baltimore in 2017, in 2018 we lost two close ones. Okay let's say they split those series and we're 9-7. It's certainly not inconceivable, I'm just jaded and broken remember ;)

Yeah, but EE, that's not an unbiased assessment or prediction, it's protecting your soul, which has been routinely battered by your favorite team!

Remove that... and I just don't see how 7-9 would be anything but another MASSIVE disappointment, maybe worse than last year because we pulled a semi-weird coaching hire that time and had the OL as the clear potential problem.

I think anything below 10 is a disappointment, frankly. It would be underachieving for the personnel for sure. I think the middle ground is 11-5. Barring a rash of injuries, that feels like the conservative prediction to me.

I don't think the Steelers are gonna be good. I could see them at 6-10. It's us and the Ravens, it'll be a dog fight, and we'll both win at least 11 games.

Steelers are all on Big Ben who, as has been pointed out, is declining. I thought he looked rickety in 2018, and of course a non-contact throwing arm injury in 2019.

Their D is pretty stacked though.

Despite his deification, I think Lamar Jackson is in for a rude awakening in 2020. I also think the Browns have built a defense to stop him. I honestly think the Browns are going to feast on the AFCN.

Same. I do not see Lamar lighting it up in 2021 but every time I say it out loud I get some eye rolls and can hear a million "okay boomers."

Yeah, Steeler D is good for sure. If not, I could see them bottoming out. Now they'll be a lot like last year.

Lamar has to come back to earth a little bit, that never-won-a-playoff game m-fer. 😁

All of this conjecture is based on what we hope/feel the Browns COULD BE, given what we know from last year and see what we added this year. So let's ride that wave of COULD BE for a moment and I see it like this: Against BAL/PIT, our defense dominated for long stretches. During those long stretches, the offense did very, VERY little. Let's imagine that our defense is healthy and just slightly improved over last year. Imagine our DL is dominant, our LBs average, our DBs average. That should result in a net rating NO WORSE than last year. Now let's imagine the offense plays Stefanski-ball, and Chubb and Hunt dominate large stretches of games, with a healthy dose of Hooper, OBJ and Landry moving the chains. Even if we don't score as much as we hope, let's imagine more games are within 3 in the fourth quarter, but the D is far more rested this year than last. None of that sounds outlandish. And if some version of that happens, there's literally no reason we shouldn't see even closer games against BAL, and blowouts vs. PIT and CIN are entirely likely. So let's say 5-1 there. Then we'd just need to go 6-4 in the rest. 11-5 sound outlandish? It just doesn't to me. So going off that idea, find two more losses. Fine, BAL and CIN. 9-7. To do worse that though? Two more losses from there? Just hard to find 7-9, for me.

Exactly, and that's why I say 11-5 feels like the middle ground to me. Could waver a game either way but it feels like a solid and not at all hyperbolic hope based on our talent and the 2019 performance of our new coaches. And toss in the optimism they've all earned through the offseason, even Terry Pluto is praising them.

Also remember that the team we watched after losing Myles got real bad, real fast. We went from meh against the run to AAAHHHH!!!, like from 130 to 170. We were starting DL who won't be on the team, let alone trotting out there first.

We knew the offense was a wreck, now the defense was just as bad. They looked ridiculous, like soft butter. Joe Schobert's presence meant dick, honestly, which is one reason I wasn't wringing my hands over him.

I think we're gonna have a pretty damn good defense. Consider, also, just how young we are on that side of the ball (Myles, Larry, Mack, Denzel, Greedy, Redwine plus all the future something-elses). These guys will be expected to be better and then we added Billings, Clayborn, Phillips, the Missouri kid (we never talk about him!), Goodson, Sendejo, KJ, and Joseph (phew).

We got busy. We patched holes. I expect our defense to be quite respectable, maybe even very good. Add that to this offense, that's why I don't see anybody this side of the Chiefs and Ravens I'd list as AFC faves above us. And I think we're right there with both.

Can’t recall which SportsCenter talking head said it this morning, but he said there is only one question ... can the Browns play as a TEAM, because all the pieces are there.

Which is exactly what y’all are sayin’

So, what would I do if I’m Belichick?

I’d go right at our LB’s when on O. I’d rattle Baker when on D. Like massive exotic blitzing, in Jed &/or Teller’s neighborhood.

Although, if Van Pelt and Stef have any clue, we simply have too many weapons. At least Freddie (somewhat) had the rotating RG, injured/bad OT’s, injured TE1 excuses, and to a lesser degree, an injured WR1,2,3.

I'll take a more experienced Baker and Stef over blitzes any day. He'll shred that shit. Plus, they can never tee off because this offense can do anything out of a single formation with the exact same shifts.

I'm remembering how relaxing it is to watch the SF offense. Everything looks so logical and easy without the need for the QB to create time with his feet. It's all on schedule and man, play-action never seems to stop scheming dudes open.

Can't wait.

Oh I agree. BB’s “find the turd (& ruthlessly exploit him)” approach vs our offense is one tough chess match.