#Browns 2020 spreads:
W1 +8.5 @ BAL
W2 -8 vs CIN
W3 -9 vs WAS
W4 +4.5 @ DAL
W5 -1 vs IND
W6 +4.5 @ PIT
W7 -3 @ CIN
W8 -5 vs LV
W10 -2.5 vs HOU
W11 pk vs PHI
W12 +1 @ JAX
W13 +4 @ TEN
W14 +3.5 vs BAL
W15 -1 @ NYG
W16 pk @ NYJ
W17 -1 vs PIT
https://twitter.com/betonline_ag/status/1283895454028238850
Hmmm, I guess they figure a split on the pick-um games.
With that said:
Cin - Rookie QB vs our D
Was - Who is the QB?
Ind - Rivers, but he hasn't been great in years
Cin - again, rookie QB
LV - In Cleveland, so yes
Phi - In Cleveland, so yes
Jax - Who is the QB?
NYG - In Cleveland, and not a good team
NYJ - Not sold on Darnold...or Flacco
Pitt - In Cleveland, and by then Ben is likely gone again
Ten - I don't buy Tannehill, reminds me of Foles 1 year wonder
I get 11. I am not sold on beating Houston, but it is possible.
Even with the loss of pre-season, I think 9 is the basement, with 10-11 reasonable, and 12 if we get all the breaks.
Colin Cowherd recently listed the Browns as #4 in his most interesting teams to watch due to the offseason additions. I agree with what he said, and he said the pressure is on Mayfield because the supporting cast is so good.
I do agree with his point, however, that teams retaining coaches and having already solidified their strengths are at a growing advantage. COVID is making the likelihood of preseason and a legitimate training camp lesser and lesser by the week. Being a team installing new systems on both sides of the ball, that is going to hurt.
If we can sneak out 9 or 10 wins, I am absolutely thrilled.
BDU, I agree and have been saying the loss of the pre-season hurts the Browns...but that is somewhat mitigated by this:
Cin x2 - New QB
Was - All new coaches/?QB
Hou - New DC
Ind - New QB
Jax - New OC/?QB
Ten - New DC/Tannehill a 1 yr wonder?
NYG - All new coaches/2nd yr QB
NYJ - Darnold???
Phi - New OC(ish)
Dal - New HC & DC/QB contract issues
That is a ton of turnover and questions on the teams we play. Pitt x2; Bal x2; and LV are the only teams that have no turnover in coaching/QB/or QB issues.
I'm currently struggling with being an underdog to the Steelers home or on the road. They weren't good last year... and Ben wasn't good his last full year as a starter and now he's 3 years older. I think they might actually be bad.
Also... Jaguars? Seriously? I would've favored us in those three games for sure.
At Ravens and at Cowboys are the only real "underdog" games on our schedule. Everything else, we should go into expecting to win.
Our least winnable game is week 1. Otherwise, all the rest are totally winnable.
The only week 1 hope is we come in with a massive chip on our shoulder, and they come in over-confident. It could happen, and it's not like we don't have the studs or the smarts.
We won in Baltimore last year and we'll be better. We're not a team that should go into any game thinking they can't win. I have no problem seeing us pull that upset, none whatsoever.
We beat the Ravens for 6 of the 8 quarters last year. And the 4 quarters we owned them in the first meeting, we had Larry O, Sheldon, MG, and OV at full strength. Wasn't the case at all for game #2.
The year before, GGG was bumping in Myles pre-snap and it was working wonderfully.
The Browns tape alone, vs the Ravens, of the last 2 years should be enough to go on.
It's just our hardest game to win, but far from unwinnable. I could actually see a huge emotional win, follow by a let-down-loss 5 days later on Thursday night.
(and yes, in an act of self preservation, I am trying to bridle my emotions lol)
I have no ability to do that suppressing of hope/expectations thing. Many times in many parts of my life, seriously wish I did.
I do not see any team with the 2nd best offensive personnel in the NFL going into any game thinking they can't win. And we're gonna have a solid to good defense, probably better than KC's.
Not one team should count us as a win. Makes no sense.
Funny enough, even if Baker goes down w/ injury, we’re still a tough out to get.
That’s not the NFL norm. We’re lucky that way, or well run.
My gut feeling re: the spread W1 +8.5 @ BAL LOSS
W2 -8 vs CIN WIN
W3 -9 vs WAS WIN
W4 +4.5 @ DAL LOSS
W5 -1 vs IND LOSS
W6 +4.5 @ PIT LOSS
W7 -3 @ CIN WIN
W8 -5 vs LV WIN
W10 -2.5 vs HOU LOSS
W11 pk vs PHI LOSS
W12 +1 @ JAX WIN
W13 +4 @ TEN LOSS
W14 +3.5 vs BAL LOSS
W15 -1 @ NYG WIN
W16 pk @ NYJ WIN
W17 -1 vs PIT LOSS So today, riding a wave of optimism, my gut has us at a quick 7-9 which feels about right. We're a middling team, IMO, until we start playing in a manner that suggests otherwise. You hold a gun to my head and ask me how I feel about that record? Well considering all the NEW, new FO/Coaching staff especially. I wouldn't hate a 7-9 season as there are likely 2-3 games that could go either way, we are winning games but can't close out consistently. Plenty to feel good about going in to Stefanski's second year. Most importantly, we win 7 games IMO it's probable Baker has calmed our anxieties and established himself as our QB for the time being.
With Kitchens and OL problems the Browns went 3-3 against the AFCN...now with a better team you think we go 2-4? Sorry EE, I don't buy it. The Browns will steal at least 1...more likely 2 from Bal/Pitt.
Like others have pointed out, if not for Kitchens inexplicable play calling at the end of the 1st half in game 2, the Browns sweep Baltimore...and should have swept Pitt too.
I mean the way I look at it things are the way they are until they aren't. We historically struggle against Pittsburgh, mightily in fact. We stole one from Baltimore in 2017, in 2018 we lost two close ones. Okay let's say they split those series and we're 9-7. It's certainly not inconceivable, I'm just jaded and broken remember ;)
Yeah, but EE, that's not an unbiased assessment or prediction, it's protecting your soul, which has been routinely battered by your favorite team!
Remove that... and I just don't see how 7-9 would be anything but another MASSIVE disappointment, maybe worse than last year because we pulled a semi-weird coaching hire that time and had the OL as the clear potential problem.
I think anything below 10 is a disappointment, frankly. It would be underachieving for the personnel for sure. I think the middle ground is 11-5. Barring a rash of injuries, that feels like the conservative prediction to me.
I don't think the Steelers are gonna be good. I could see them at 6-10. It's us and the Ravens, it'll be a dog fight, and we'll both win at least 11 games.
Steelers are all on Big Ben who, as has been pointed out, is declining. I thought he looked rickety in 2018, and of course a non-contact throwing arm injury in 2019.
Their D is pretty stacked though.
Despite his deification, I think Lamar Jackson is in for a rude awakening in 2020. I also think the Browns have built a defense to stop him. I honestly think the Browns are going to feast on the AFCN.
Same. I do not see Lamar lighting it up in 2021 but every time I say it out loud I get some eye rolls and can hear a million "okay boomers."
Yeah, Steeler D is good for sure. If not, I could see them bottoming out. Now they'll be a lot like last year.
Lamar has to come back to earth a little bit, that never-won-a-playoff game m-fer. 😁
All of this conjecture is based on what we hope/feel the Browns COULD BE, given what we know from last year and see what we added this year. So let's ride that wave of COULD BE for a moment and I see it like this: Against BAL/PIT, our defense dominated for long stretches. During those long stretches, the offense did very, VERY little. Let's imagine that our defense is healthy and just slightly improved over last year. Imagine our DL is dominant, our LBs average, our DBs average. That should result in a net rating NO WORSE than last year. Now let's imagine the offense plays Stefanski-ball, and Chubb and Hunt dominate large stretches of games, with a healthy dose of Hooper, OBJ and Landry moving the chains. Even if we don't score as much as we hope, let's imagine more games are within 3 in the fourth quarter, but the D is far more rested this year than last. None of that sounds outlandish. And if some version of that happens, there's literally no reason we shouldn't see even closer games against BAL, and blowouts vs. PIT and CIN are entirely likely. So let's say 5-1 there. Then we'd just need to go 6-4 in the rest. 11-5 sound outlandish? It just doesn't to me. So going off that idea, find two more losses. Fine, BAL and CIN. 9-7. To do worse that though? Two more losses from there? Just hard to find 7-9, for me.
Exactly, and that's why I say 11-5 feels like the middle ground to me. Could waver a game either way but it feels like a solid and not at all hyperbolic hope based on our talent and the 2019 performance of our new coaches. And toss in the optimism they've all earned through the offseason, even Terry Pluto is praising them.
Also remember that the team we watched after losing Myles got real bad, real fast. We went from meh against the run to AAAHHHH!!!, like from 130 to 170. We were starting DL who won't be on the team, let alone trotting out there first.
We knew the offense was a wreck, now the defense was just as bad. They looked ridiculous, like soft butter. Joe Schobert's presence meant dick, honestly, which is one reason I wasn't wringing my hands over him.
I think we're gonna have a pretty damn good defense. Consider, also, just how young we are on that side of the ball (Myles, Larry, Mack, Denzel, Greedy, Redwine plus all the future something-elses). These guys will be expected to be better and then we added Billings, Clayborn, Phillips, the Missouri kid (we never talk about him!), Goodson, Sendejo, KJ, and Joseph (phew).
We got busy. We patched holes. I expect our defense to be quite respectable, maybe even very good. Add that to this offense, that's why I don't see anybody this side of the Chiefs and Ravens I'd list as AFC faves above us. And I think we're right there with both.
Can’t recall which SportsCenter talking head said it this morning, but he said there is only one question ... can the Browns play as a TEAM, because all the pieces are there.
Which is exactly what y’all are sayin’
So, what would I do if I’m Belichick?
I’d go right at our LB’s when on O. I’d rattle Baker when on D. Like massive exotic blitzing, in Jed &/or Teller’s neighborhood.
Although, if Van Pelt and Stef have any clue, we simply have too many weapons. At least Freddie (somewhat) had the rotating RG, injured/bad OT’s, injured TE1 excuses, and to a lesser degree, an injured WR1,2,3.
I'll take a more experienced Baker and Stef over blitzes any day. He'll shred that shit. Plus, they can never tee off because this offense can do anything out of a single formation with the exact same shifts.
I'm remembering how relaxing it is to watch the SF offense. Everything looks so logical and easy without the need for the QB to create time with his feet. It's all on schedule and man, play-action never seems to stop scheming dudes open.
Can't wait.
Oh I agree. BB’s “find the turd (& ruthlessly exploit him)” approach vs our offense is one tough chess match.