Saw where the Colts do all their scoring in the first half. Then run the ball really poorly (!). They've just played shitty offenses.

Also, I thought it was funny when Baker talked about being sick of all the losing. He's like 13-7 at home now. Oh, Bake, you just don't know, do you?

One of the reasons I am so hopeful of a win on Sunday is HOW we have been winning.

It is true we just lost a huge offensive weapon. But if you look at a number of Nick's big runs, they happened because of the horses up front. Wyatt Teller just may as well have a flamethrower strapped to his shoulder. That is how you take out the trash around the corner.

We are seeing the offensive line mature before our eyes. That is the key to sustained success, no matter who is toting the rock. True, the Colts have gaudy stats on defense, but they have not been stopping teams that score at will. We will know very early in the game if the Colts are worthy of that ranking. I seriously doubt that have faced an offense yet capable of controlling the game on the ground.

I am thinking a 28-13 Browns victory.

I got 21-10 stuck in my brain.

Thinking 14-3 at the half, nothingburger second half.

Baker goes 19/25 for 240 and 2/0, 4th consecutive win and game over 100 PR, some people keep complaining (!).

On paper, and film, we should win this game. We've proven more explosive on offense than any opponent they have faced, and they're one of the least potent attacks we've faced so far - as Dawg documented, they're middle of the pack.

This will be especially true if Darius Leonard is out with the groin injury he sustained against Chicago. They also lost Bobby Okereke (Thumb surgery today) and E.J Speed (Having scans on his elbow) so their linebacker position could be really banged up after a pretty uninspiring win over Chicago. They have Anthony Walker, Zaire Franklin and 6th round rookie Jordan Glasgow at depth.

Anthony Castonzo is also banged up with a rib injury and could be out, but either way, an injured LT bodes well for Garrett and Vernon - although we don't seem to like playing Garrett at RE.

Phillip Rivers looks quite pedestrian, and he does look like he's lost even more juice on his arm. They quietly have some nice receivers, so we'll have to be careful there, but Rivers appears less of a challenge than Dak, Burrow and Lamar. He won't kill them the way Haskins did, but age has clearly caught up with him.

We're a mild question with Chubb out. Hunt and Johnson were excellent against Dallas, and our OL continues to prove dominant, but it remains to be seen how much we will miss Chubb. Personally, I think we'll be okay. The signs were positive against Dallas.

In theory, we should fair okay against their D. T.J Carrie and Xavier Woods are having a nice revival, both having collected two interceptions and a pick six. Gotta try to keep Justin Houston and DeForest Buckner contained. All easier said than done, but again, easier if their linebackers are out injured. Their numbers against the pass are great but I feel a lot of that has to do with the quality of opponents. Nick Foles, Sam Darnold and a not-himself Kirk Cousins aren't exactly threatening - while Garnder Minshew ripped them apart with a near-perfect day passing - 19/20 for 173 and 3 TD, and the Jags only had 91 rushing yards to show for it.

As far as the offense goes, their big producers so far are TY Hilton and Mo Alie-Cox, super quick guys who can really pop them. Johnathan Taylor is their lead runner, racking up 3.9 yards per carry without having a run for more than 16 yards - which shows he's just consistently bashing out yards.

I'm feeling confident. We're coming off a big win, coming home and I can see Stefanski keeping the guys focused knowing damn well a 4-1 start becomes harder and harder to fuck up when you've still got plenty of time and questionable teams on the schedule. The more we keep this going, the stronger it gets.

In theory, we should be pulling out a 27-14 win.

So, my thoughts on the score is this:

They will contain our run game....keeping it to 140 yards and 2 TD's. Baker will have his best game to date with 260, 2 TD's.

Browns 31

Colts 17

I just remembered one fact. @OconRecon mentioned this and it really is true.

It is the coaching staff's job to prevent this - but at some point, the players will read and believe their own press clippings.

Call it a "let down" game if you will - but it is out there.

I hope it doesn't rear its ugly head this weekend.

Prediction...

Browns : a billion

Colts : negative 2

(yes, I just watched Baldy's 91 second O-line video. Callahan and Stefanski are putting artwork out there. I welled up it's so beautiful. The blocking angles, the confidence, the execution, the finishing ... gd-it, pass the Kleenex)

- Sounding more and more like the Colts starting LT and best defender just might be out. Part of the game, as we know all too well.

- Weird to realize: The third WR in this offense is judged mostly on his blocking. That's why Hodge won the spot and DPJ earned so much praise while catching zero passes (trucked a dude).

- "3 TE sets" seems like something we'll be talking about on Monday. Jake and others saying they're incredibly hard to defend and few teams have a trio like Hooper, Bryant, and Njoku. That's rare.

- I made the connection between D'Ernest and TD based on identical size, same uniform number, and TD's status as the OG of the Shanny WZ-based system. Somebody on Twitter pointed out that he runs SO MUCH like Kamara. Got in my head and it ain't coming out. He really does.

- Whoever said it makes sense to start D'Ernest and let him get more carries... so Kareem is fresh to be that elite dual purpose guy... I love it.

- I think Baker gets to 30 throws. I didn't predict it above but I think he will unless our halftime lead is pretty huge. Why? Stef had a brilliant game but there were those 3 and outs helping the Dallas comeback.

Running can't kill the clock if you don't move the chains. I think he'll be a little more aggressive passing on 2nd and 4 or 5.

- 4-1 going into the Pittsburgh game? Yes please. So much fun.

Suh-weet.

Sheldon and AC back at practice today.

Larry O and Tae on bikes.

Greedy dressed, but not even participating in drills. I like T-Mitch a little better anyway tbh.

That's not bad on a Thursdee.

==========

At Colts practice today (from Colts Twitterer)

— Darius Leonard working on a side field with no helmet

— Bobby Okereke is back with a club on that left wrist

— Anthony Walker is not out here

— No sign of Anthony Castonzo. That’s not good.

1:52pm · 8 Oct 2020 ·

Defense will be whole, tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow...

Seriously, when can we have everybody? I seriously think this is a good defense if we can get all our guys together. Clayborn and Vernon at the same time for packages. Mack, Phillips, and Harrison getting more snaps. All four CBs.

Myles Garrett has been affecting offenses almost single-handedly, speeding up the clock, making them chip at us. But with Goodson, Sione, and Sendejo in on passing downs, honestly, me and my mom could chip at this defense. She's 95.

Sendejo really must have pictures.

I, like most all of you, like our odds vs Indy. I listen to Pat McAfee's podcast and he's a homer for the team he played for his entire career so maybe that's rubbing off on me a little bit but I know I'm not the only one who has made that observation that we'll be the best team that they've faced yet and maybe by some margin depending on how much you want to quibble. I haven't caught up with any of this week's episodes yet so IDK how they're feeling about it but I'm interested to see... Things I want to see 1) Tighter play in the secondary: IMO Dallas has a scarier passing game than Indy so if we can get up like we did, and have, by half time and have the Colts forced to play catch-up then we can take this. 2) Baker keeping-on: He has been pretty good, putting up the numbers (most TDs? Or ... just a lot 8 or something lol I read he was on pace for near-30 so let's go with that), converting first downs, and most importantly making the smart throws. 3) Go to Pittsburgh 4-1: Imagine, this isn't ludicrous. A game vs Pittsburgh with likely first place on the line and real weight behind it? No one will take us seriously because we are The Browns and this is the year we need to slay the Pittsburgh dragon if there ever was.

We really need to capitalize on opportunities. We dropped about four interceptions against Dallas. Just dead ass dropped them. Takitaki, Mitchell, Harrison and Sendejo all dropped one that were pretty routine picks. The D has been great at creating turnovers, but there are plenty more for the taking if we can finish plays.

I want to see more DPJ, too. The kid was an absolute monster on blocks. He bodied a couple of guys. He's a big receiver, so I'm not totally shocked, but he looks pretty damn ready to compete. He very much helps sell the pass, too, so it's effective to have a WR-heavy (Well, just three in our case) formation that we can run from at a high level.

I also want to see Mayfield avoid mistakes. Although I think it's overblown, Indy are creating turnovers. Mayfield putting together another efficient performance would go a long way towards helping us catch the W.

I also want a big lead early because the game starts at 7:25am but I have to leave for work after an hour so we need to put it away quick lol.

Love to see Baker have the kind of game that allows us to stop talking about leashes and shit. Like 250 and 3 TDs, put him at 10/2 for the season, keep edging his PR up, get to 4-1.

Nationally they seem to get it more than the locals. Didn't realize that 26 of 35 completions the past two weeks were for 1st downs, hence the high TQBR. He's doing winning things.

He's long overdue for a big game, so it'd be nice to see him flash that capacity in this system. Especially with Nick Chubb out. While I trust Hunt and Johnson, it would be nice to know we can lean in to the passing game more if it is needed.

I also think it would do Mayfield the world of good. Nothing boosts confidence like a monster performance.

I am looking for a complete game from the D, but also looking for 3 TE sets. 2 TE's already causes issues for clubs, but 3 TE's...especially with the caliber we have...should be a nightmare. Imagine this...2 WR's out wide going deep, 2 TE's on the line going intermediate, and a 3rd TE off-set in the backfield for a chip and slipping out to the flat or shallow middle. How does a D match up with that?

I'm looking for Stefanski to dial up defense-loosening plays early with some deep shots. Or, if their LB's are still hurt, go to the Chief & Hoop.

Beat writers are really pissing me off, it's like they're trying to "cut against the grain" of this breakout season. Blech.

First they all picked against the Browns last week, every single one. Now the PD has a headline, "Browns Provide Test for Good Colts Team."

What? How is that a Cleveland headline? Does it not sound like an Indy headline to you? We're a "test?" We're "the other team," a bit player on the Colts' journey?

Dear lord, people.