The Browns are fresh off an amazing game with the Bengals...with Baker showing that he not only is an NFL QB, but he has the ability to carry the team when needed. I truly believe the fetters are off and we will see the new (back to the future) Baker from here on out.
To this week:
The Passing Game
The Raiders have 214 more yards on exactly the same number of pass attempts. The big difference is in the 40+ passes, where the Browns only have 1 on the season. Baker has more TD's, but he also has more INT's. Both have given up 11 sacks.
As for opposition, the Raiders have faced 2 top 10 teams (based on QBR against), the Chiefs (2) and Bucs (6). The Browns have faced 4 in the top 11, the Colts (1), Steelers (5), WFT (8), and the Ravens (11). The Browns have also faced 3 of the top 6 sacking defenses, the Raiders 1 in the top 10. In fact the team closest to our sack totals is the Bills...and they lost that game. The Raiders have only 7 sacks on the season. The WORST the Browns have faced was the Bengals (10) and we won both games.
The Running Game
The Raiders 418 LESS yards rushing than the Browns on 46 fewer carries. In other words, they don't run much, and they don't run well. On the defensive side, the Browns are giving up only 3.8 y/c, the Raiders 4.6. In fact, the Browns have given up only 2 plays of over 20 yards on the season, where the Raiders have given up 5 20+, and 1 over 40.
As for opposition, they have faced equally tough run defenses, so no advantage see there.
The Browns are 3-0 at home averaging 33.7 to 24.3, nearly a 10 point margin
The Raiders are 2-1 on the road averaging 31.3 to 32.7, giving up more than they score
Summary
Browns will keep pace through the air, but have a distinct advantage on the ground
Browns 34
Raiders 27
Carr has to be the most underappreciated QB in the league. He is doing everything he needs to do to win.
On injuries, CBD saying it's likely those close to recovering will be held out this week. Bryant has KS's and Baker's confidence, so why rush Hoop. Hubb is no Teller, but he's doing just fine. Chubb has already been declared a no-go.
BTW, the Browns are home until November 28th. A win, a feel good bye week, and knowing you're not traveling until after Thanksgiving is a darn nice way to spend the next month.
This has a chance to be somewhat of a statement win, and a super enjoyable bye week for the team and fans.
Based on the players we're about to get back -- mostly Teller, Chubb, and Hooper -- this would be such a huge win. We can go into the bye 6-2 and saying just that: We're about to get back three of our best players on offense. Reclaim our brand, a back, a guy who blows open holes, and a TE in an offense that loves them.
Carr is having a terrific year. He should indeed be getting more love (another one of my draft darlings). They throw a lot so we're likely to be in packages quite a bit, more DBs and fewer LBs.
When we have the ball, it's all sunshine. They don't get to the passer and they give up a lot of great passing days and points. It's a chance for Baker to "stack good games," as Orlovsky put it. And they've had a week to get clear on the post-Beckham plan, which actually worked quite well without any planning (!).
I think it's the difference between 10-6 and either 11-5 or 12-4. It's not code red or anything but it's pivotal and an amazing opportunity. Wanna keep getting healthier and avenge one or both of those Ravens/Steelers games. Real bad.
Brown on orange for Sunday.
https://twitter.com/Browns/status/1322249661894156288?s=09
Some good vibes: Carr's passer rating plummets with the temperature. He's like 95 over 50 degrees and 60-some when it's cold. He struggles with weather, I remember the knocks on his hand size.
Pluto's article today was aces. It made the point that Baker's renaissance really started in practice the week leading up to the Bengals game (no clue why the bumpy start). Pluto's sources told him his swagger and joy were back, and that reflected a guy who was starting to "feel" the offense more than needing to think so damn much at every step in the process.
When OBJ went out, it's tough to say otherwise: That completed his week, in a way. He was the alpha dog. He had his guy Higgins back. He didn't feel the need to fixate on a WR1, whether that was conscious or a background app he just couldn't turn off. The stats don't lie.
He got into a Baker Mayfield rhythm, his body language changed, and the coaches were as thrilled by it (and the film) as we are, maybe more from what Pluto was suggesting. It felt like the light going on in the offense, and they were seeing it all week.
Now, this past week, they said was his very best week of the year. His level of preparation and focus was again aces. His swagger, too. It just means he isn't trying to remember several complicated math equations. There in there, now. Internalized. And he can be him.
Pluto said something that seems to be true: Baker's such a smart dude, and quick witted, so it's a little surprising that he does need a decent amount of time to get an offense down. Coaches have seen it a few times now (which of course, is NOT ideal in itself), needing more time than his obvious smarts would suggest. Interesting. But he was in one offense with Lincoln while becoming the best 3-year passer in CFB history.
Stefanski and AVP are seriously smart dudes. If they're feeling a little giddy watching Baker really "getting it," I'm pretty fucking giddy, too.
Oh, and Ronnie Harrison is likely to be the main guy handling Waller. Somebody (Pluto?) said he's our 2nd best cover guy to Ward right now.
Smart dudes often DO take a while, because they question every tiny nuance 100 ways. It is the guys that are mid-level and don't ask questions that get offenses quick...because they just need reps, not the why.
I just keep thinking, what is this going to look like after the break when we have Teller and Chubb back!!! WOW!
The weather will come into play today. However, it will be nowhere close to eat the old stadium used to turn into - a freaking mosh pit. Landscaping and field grooming technologies have advanced light years since then.
My brother and I have had many conversations about the Browns offense in the last week. I really think it is highly possible that OBJ would come back to the huddle, or on the sideline, and get in Baker's ear that "I am open, THROW IT TO ME!.....
And hearing that time after time, Baker probably gave in to it and repeatedly forced the ball where it shouldn't have gone.
With that pressure now removed, Baker just went back to being Baker. And we all saw the results.
It sounds from the coaches that this was not just one hot afternoon, but the light bulb was really coming on.
We will see in two hours.
OBJ would be far from alone always thinking he's open, getting in his QB's ear, etc. But we've also heard it and read it from multiple coaches: "We have to get him involved early. We have to get the ball to him."
And whether Baker did it consciously or unconsciously, tons of stats make me think he did exactly that, and it took him out of his rhythm... especially if OBJ is the freelancer he's been said to be, both in NY and in Cleveland.
Baker's supposed to be good in weather, not sure why because I only read the Twitter headline (!). Neither defense is very good so it's likely to even things out a little for both teams (hurt the good offenses and help the bad defenses).
It's kind of a wild card, really. So often you go into a windy day (rain is looking less bigly) and assume it's gonna be low scoring and then it isn't.
Pretty fascinated with the Desmond King idea. A CB/S type, meaning he can cover (and he's small for a safety). He had such a good year in 2018, like 10 PDs and 3 picks. Then last year wasn't as great and this year he's pissed and wants out.
Dang almost a pick 6!
Browns will drive into the wind in quarter 2.
Fucken Sendejo, man.... geeeeez...
About a s much effort today a s two weeks ago. That HAS to change.
Not tough to sum it up:
- Could not stop the run at all. MASSIVELY long drives, 5 yards started feeling like a win. That was horrendous given the weather and knowing they couldn't go downfield. Go ahead and get a LB, AB, you have my full support.
- Mack Wilson is just bad. I can't figure out what he does for a living anymore. He isn't a run stuffer and he can't cover.
- The story on offense is short: drops. Period. That's it. Two to Landry in the end zone (yes, he got hit on the second one), a big first down with real estate by Njoku, a total of 7, I think. 4 or 5 by Landry.
- Baker was mostly on target, would've had a good bad-weather game. He was solid.
That's about it. Couldn't get off the field on defense, the Raiders knew just about any handoff would get at least 5... and on offense, a shit ton of drops.
Added up to a horrible game to watch.
Maybe this is good for all of us: In his last 5 games, Lamar Jackson is completing 55% for 6.4 and a PR of 82. He's been pretty damn bad for a pretty big sample.
And he had a moment with a coach yesterday, kind of laughed/waved him off until the coach walked away frustrated. Little chinks.
Thinking of this game, no Chubb, no Teller, Myles with ankle AND knee issues, still no Greedy, and first game w/ new gameplan due to OBJ out (yes, I still think he was an issue, but it is still a new gameplan)...and easily the worst drop game in years.
I'm not too upset with this game. Firstly, Baker didn't suck. That's two games in a row. That means more to our season than any individual win. Secondly, we played poorly against a team we knew was really damn good and it was a relatively tight game. Thirdly, the D was an issue, but we already know our D needs work.
I think someone in the Twitter group said of potential trades, "Berry knows this is a playoff year but not a Superbowl year."
We're on pace to win 10 games. We're coming out of the bye with five wins and the schedule gets a little lighter for us. This season, already, is a mighty impressive jump for this team. We're a win away from totaling our 2019 record at the half way point of 2020, and we've only lost to objectively good teams.
6-2 was always, always, an unrealistic expectation. It's super impressive our guys even got close to that.
I'm happy with the way the season is panning out. We've still got work to do, like Baker said, but we're further ahead than anything realistically anticipated. Most importantly, we've got a coach and our QB is roaring back to life. That's two pieces of the puzzle which take up half the fucking board.
Most importantly, if anyone hasn't voted yet I strongly encourage you to vote Biden/Harris today as your overseas friend because I am tired of watching my opposite-side-of-the-world friends become the laughing stock. You're better than that. You're better than him. <3
Good stuff, BDU. Agreed especially on being happy with how things are going.
5-3 and beating the Colts in Indy is fantastic. Surviving Burrow's not-rookie-like games twice is truly important for a team on the rise. Getting beat by a now-undefeated PIT who made Lamar look bad suddenly doesn't feel terrible anymore. And getting outplayed by a top 5 RB on a horrible weather day where no one could make a play was just plain "any given Sunday" stuff.
Adds up to: we have a thoroughly average team with some excellent players being coached very well, despite key injuries all over the place.
All of that is very un-Browns-like and very, VERY "regular NFL team"-like.
I'll take it.
Our defense is so much worse than I thought it could be. I still think we could win 11 but I'm drifting to 10 (!). I think the offense with Chubb, Teller, and Hooper back (that's SO much) and Baker's ribs rested will continue to climb, even without OBJ, and be a "very good offense." Like playoff caliber.
The defense has to somehow becomes competent. Then it's 10 wins and a 6th seed, something like that... and that's HUGE. Then fill in the holes and aim for 12 or 13 wins in 2021.
Y'know, I'm not convinced that the defense is "much worse" quite yet.
Look at the QB/offenses we've faced:
Lamar - 38 points
Burrow x2 - 30 and 34 Haskins - 20
Rivers - 23
Ben - 38
Carr - 16
So against average QBs, we give up 19 ppg. Against good to great QBs, we give up 32 ppg. This is not exactly "terrible" against like teams.
Now look who's coming up:
Deshaun Wentz
Some Jag (literally)
Tannehill
Lamar
Daniel Jones
Darnold
Ben
I'm reserving solid judgment until these next three. If we go 2-1 in that stretch and stay closer to the 19 ppg, we have a trend that is pretty...average.
And we get Jones and Darnold back-to-back in Decemeber, both times in NJ. Once again: <19 ppg in those two should equal wins.
Which means if we can get the non-awful QBs down to <24 ppg ish, we would have a chance even in a playoff game.
With a healthy offense playing Stefball again, I think this is realistic.
And agreed, in a truly decent world, Biden wins 92% of the vote and the others are those, uh... whatever you call the hateful, racist abominations in Twitter videos 50 times a day. It has to end.
The bye and Harrison elevating to a top 10 safety in the league (7th right now) helps. Getting Jacob Phillips back would help. But mostly getting Chubb/Teller/Hooper will help.
Last note for me on the Raiders game before moving on to Houston prep:
I liked the screen game concepts Stef used and I didn't hate the Janovich screen.
I might have liked to have seen a few more for Reem.
And I'm wondering: what would DPJ look like in a bubble screen? Seems he's got the hands and size for it. Might be good to give Baker some easy reads/completions this way, as well, and steal a little bit of the Steelers' new playbook with quick completions and let guys work.
For a fast guy, DPJ's get off is a little slow. Not sure if he'd be great at the bubble.